Africa must seize critical minerals moment: Dhawan
- 3 July 2026
‘It’s by no means given that people will have to invest in African assets’
“We’ve downloaded the wrong meme”, International Council on Mining and Metals CEO Rohitesh Dhawan says when it’s suggested oil refining in Africa is a clear pointer to the economic benefits of locally beneficiating more of the continent’s undoubted mineral wealth in future.
While Nigeria’s fuel production complex outside of Lagos and Indonesia’s now globally dominate integrated nickel export sector appear to be clear examples of the massive domestic value capture to be won from in-country resource riches, Dhawan has said national government insistence on downstream processing as part of new resource development deals could be counter-productive for the continent.
“I have a counter-consensus view on this,” he told CNBC Africa in a recent interview.
“I am 100% on board with the idea that the benefit of minerals under the ground of Africans should be maximally felt by Africans. No debate.
“What I don’t agree with is that the best way to do that is to move further down the value chain.
“That’s not the only way and it’s almost certainly not the best way to achieve the goal that people are asking for which is more development for the continent.
“You could not today pay me enough money to go into the refining and smelting business. The economics are not good.
“My worry is without a really thoughtful analysis of whether this is truly a sustainable industry that we will end up creating something that will become a drain on coffers rather than something that supports [economic development].
“There are 66 ferrochrome smelters in South Africa today. Only 11 of them operate.
“So whenever somebody says to me, we need more smelting and refining capacity, I say, hang on, we’re not even operating the things we have now.”
High power costs, energy security lapses, logistics bottlenecks and unpredictable government policy had negatively impacted South Africa’s ferrochrome sector, aluminium smelting in Mozambique and, at times, the continent’s growing copper smelting activities.
Dhawan, who heads an international organisation representing 26 of the world’s biggest miners, made the point that mine supply shortages had driven copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) into negative territory. “If it wasn’t for the high gold and silver prices and high sulphuric acid prices, which are a byproduct of copper smelting and refining, you would be completely underwater.”
He said much higher levels of investment in mining and raw mineral production – and the exploration that preceded it – were needed to unlock the US$16-17 trillion of revenue expected to be generated by African mining companies over the next 20-30 years.
McKinsey analysts said in a June Africa mining treatise less than 10% of the continent’s $9 billion critical-mineral-projects pipeline had secured financing or progressed to the construction and feasibility stages, according to its MineSpans data, “reflecting investor caution”.
“What investment there is tends to be concentrated in a small number of large, tier-one assets that can absorb risk and deliver scale. By contrast, mid-tier deposits—despite often having attractive grade quality—remain largely undeveloped because they fall below the risk-adjusted thresholds required for investment.
“Three structural interventions that could help Africa convert its minerals wealth into sustained competitive advantage [are] a coordinated clustering approach, stronger capabilities in capital-project execution and operational excellence, and the deployment of technology innovation to accelerate development.
“Our research shows efforts in these areas could unlock up to $40 billion in incremental value across the mining ecosystem, increasing the continent’s GDP by 4% and creating more than three million jobs by 2035.
“Clustering mining operations, in particular, could fundamentally alter project economics by spreading infrastructure costs, reducing risk and creating investible regional ecosystems that ensure Africa can take its place as a mining leader on the strategic minerals frontier.”
Dhawan said countries such as Australia and Chile showed what economic advantages leadership in the mining space could deliver. He used Australia as an example of “upstream” value to be captured through a vast, circa-$100 billion mining equipment, technology and services (METS) sector.
“As much as this is a unique opportunity for Africa to leapfrog development using the critical minerals lexicon that we have now it’s by no means given that people will have to invest in African assets,” Dhawan said.
“When people say to me today, what’s the most exciting country for developing new mines for a commodity like copper which is the hottest mineral at the moment, it’s not in Africa.
“It’s Argentina, because in Argentina the government has taken very deliberate steps to attract inward investment, giving them certainty that outlasts the political cycle. And people are willing to invest billions of dollars into what are very long-term investments.
“We are not guaranteed on the [African] continent that this is our moment. We have to make it our moment.”
