China holds germanium chips for now, report says
- 11 April 2025
RFC Ambrian sees some light at the end of an opaque germanium supply tunnel for users outside dominant Chinese supply chains. The metal has a tiny market, worth circa-US$340 million in 2023, but one with outsized impact on vital industrial and technology supply chains.
The United States Geological Survey said earlier this year a complete Chinese ban on its gallium and germanium exports could put a $3.4 billion dent in US GDP. It said the country imported an estimated $50 million worth of germanium metal and germanium dioxide in 2024. More than 50% of the germanium metal and 23% of the germanium dioxide came from China, the USGS said.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said gallium and germanium were the “two most vital minerals to develop the next generation of advanced [computer] chips” while “the future of semiconductors for defence applications depends on reliable supplies of high-purity gallium and germanium”.
Recycling was the only current US domestic source of new germanium – also the case for antimony, bismuth, chromium, magnesium metal, tin, tungsten and vanadium – with RFC Ambrian saying in its new germanium research report the US Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLASM) recently added about three tonnes of germanium ingots to the National Defense Stockpile from recycled materials.
“The USGS highlights that China’s export controls on germanium illustrate global concerns about the reliability of supplies of mineral commodities that are vital to economic development, national security and the transition to renewable energy,” RFC Ambrian says in its report.
Tied to primary production of commodities such as zinc and coal, new mine germanium output could come from sites such as Ivanhoe Mines’ (68% owner) significant Kipushi redevelopment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (pictured above). According to RFC Ambrian’s assessment of the landscape, though, these projects are few and far between and in the case of Kipushi, “[Ivanhoe] reports that germanium is unlikely to be recovered as very few zinc smelters currently extract it”.
The investment firm found 12 active mines “thought to have produced germanium in 2024”, including seven zinc and five lignite operations. “Identifying mines that produce germanium is challenging,” it says.
Based on 2023 global production of 243t, an estimated global resource of 119,000t and circa-3% average reported recovery rates, there could be identified germanium in the ground to underpin current output for 15 years.
“RFC Ambrian has identified 17 active mining projects that contain germanium. However, the mention of germanium is scarce in these companies’ reports and recovery of the metal appears unlikely.
“Elsewhere, there is limited information on existing expansions or new zinc smelter capacity where germanium could be recovered in the future.
“Significant capacity has just come onstream at the new germanium recovery plant at the Lubumbashi copper-cobalt tailings project in the DRC. The plant has the capacity to produce 30 tonnes per year of germanium and the first production was shipped in October 2024.
“The germanium concentrates will be sent to Umicore in Belgium for refining.
“In addition, a potential expansion at the Clarksville zinc smelter in the US plans to recover germanium from old mine tailings and could add 30tpy of capacity.
“[And] the Tsumeb mine in Namibia is investigating the installation of a germanium line at its copper smelter, although a Chinese company controls this project.”
RFC Ambrian says China’s export restrictions fuelled a more than doubling of the germanium price to about US$26,500/t last year. While they had since eased they remained at historically elevated levels.
“Germanium can be substituted in many of its applications [with products such as silicon], but typically at the cost of production efficiency or the properties of the product,” the firm says.
“New capacity coming on-stream from DRC should increase Western sources of the metal and higher prices may stimulate the development of further new capacity.”
