Copper instability again in the spotlight
- 15 October 2025
Codelco chair Maximo Pacheco says “operational continuity” is the major issue facing the global copper industry, which needs to invest more than US$210 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand, according to a new Wood Mackenzie copper whitepaper.
Speaking after announcing Codelco’s reported US$50 million investment in Robert Friedland’s I-Pulse technology, Pacheco said copper miners had reached “a very challenging moment”.
“Last year the main issue for the copper industry was geopolitics,” he said on the sidelines of LME Week in London.
“This year the main issue for the copper industry is operational continuity, because it’s becoming more and more difficult to find copper and to develop copper mines. We are at this stage facing a very challenging moment where we need to bring more innovation so as to make sure that we can have more copper.
“I remember last year [at] LME Week people were commenting that there was going to be a small surplus of copper in 2025. Well, 2025 is almost over and there is no such surplus in copper. We are short. You have seen a shortage in copper supply precisely because of the operational continuity issues.”
Wood Mackenzie says in its October copper paper total demand for the metal could be expected to surge 24% to 42.7 million tonnes per annum by 2035, primarily driven by global economic development and electrification.
“To meet the impending supply gap over the next decade the copper market will require an estimated eight million tonnes per annum or so of new capacity from greenfield and brownfield projects as well as an additional 3.5Mtpa from direct scrap use,” the group says.
“Understandably, alarm bells are ringing over the slow pace of new mine development.
“The problem is not a lack of copper in the ground – there is a robust pipeline of greenfield projects – but investment and access. Environmental permits, social opposition and technical hurdles have put many plans and opportunities on ice.
“The crunch is not geology, but who is willing to build where and how fast they can get projects online.
“Despite the growing need for sustained investment in supply, investor appetite for new mine development remains muted.”
Wood Mackenzie says beyond structural financing and geopolitical challenges, physical supply disruptions are “an escalating concern”.
“The industry’s move towards underground mining over the next two decades underscores the significant technical and cost hurdles involved. Codelco’s Chuquicamata is one example where an extraction ramp-up has been pushed back a full decade to 2040 due to engineering setbacks, geological challenges and pandemic-related maintenance delays.
“Safety risks add another layer of complexity. Recent incidents at Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC and El Teniente in Chile highlight the dangers of deeper, more intricate underground operations.”
Big Four accounting firm EY says operational complexity is the number one risk identified in its latest survey of mining companies on 2026 risks and opportunities for the industry.
“Predictability underpins investor confidence, capital access and strategic agility,” EY global mining & metals leader Paul Mitchell said.
“But achieving reliable output is more difficult because of operational complexity – deeper, more complex orebodies, greater variability and declining grades.
“The average grade of copper mined worldwide has fallen by about 40% since 1991. The challenge is heightened by aging assets and capability gaps. Deeper mines require specialist knowledge in geotechnics, logistics and hydrology.”
Pacheco, a Chilean economist and former energy minister of the country, said Chile had the world’s largest copper reserves and “we know that the world needs a lot of copper”.
“But we need to be competitive,” he said.
“We need to produce it with less energy. We need to cut our costs and make sure we can supply this market at the right cost.
“This will only be done with innovation and new technologies.”
