Ma’aden CEO Bob Wilt says there is “no slow-down in mining spending at all” in Saudi Arabia and that there are enough appealing projects for Manara Minerals to assess to give him confidence it can invest up to US$15 billion of growth spending by the end of the decade.

Wilt said in London the ex-Saudi minerals investment vehicle formed last year by Ma’aden and the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) was not interested in “splashing money around the world” but had its eye on “several good projects” and remained focused on growing its global exposure to iron ore, lithium, copper and nickel.

On the latter commodity, Manara acquired 10% of Brazil’s Vale Base Metals for $2.6 billion when it was formed. VBM has since announced investments to grow its Canadian nickel production by up to 10% by 2026.

Manara has been linked to Barrick Gold’s Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan and Ivanhoe Mines’ Western Foreland project area adjacent to its major Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Wilt said it had looked at both. Giant Reko Diq was “a tough prospect, but the reward might be worth it”.

“I don't think people should expect a splashy announcement [from Manara] every six months,” he said.

“I think they should expect an announcement every year.

“We have got intense due diligence going on several good projects. But we’re looking at risk management, we’re looking at returns, we’re looking at dividends; we’re looking at a lot of things.

“We’re taking a long-term view on what we need for midstream and downstream development because the purpose of Manara is not an investment fund, it is to secure offtake in critical minerals.”

Domestically, state-owned Ma’aden is investing heavily to grow its aluminium, phosphate and gold businesses. It is investigating brine lithium sources and even renewable-energy powered aluminium smelting.  It is moving to 100% ownership of its integrated bauxite, alumina and aluminium arm via the purchase of Alcoa’s 25.1% stake for c$1.1 billion, and has joined with Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) to weigh formation of 50-50-owned regional metals giant after buying 20.62% of Alba.

“I’m still very bullish on aluminium,” said Wilt, a former senior executive at Alcoa for nearly two decades.

“I continue to say that the energy transition doesn't happen without aluminium.

“It’s kind of the forgotten metal in terms of lithium, copper and the other sexy new kids on the block.

“Currently 10% of the world’s aluminium production is in the Middle East. When we combine with Alba we'll have 5% of it.

“We’re going to be an aluminium powerhouse.

“The combination makes perfect industrial sense. It makes geopolitical sense.”

Wilt said he saw Chinese aluminium demand remaining ahead of its domestic supply even if it did pass its 45-million-tonne national cap set six years ago, which he said was problematic due to the country’s commitment to tie production of the metal to clean power sources.

“I’m betting that they maintain that commitment,” he said.

“That's why I'm talking to Alba.

“I have faith that we can count on a bifurcated world [in aluminium]: China and the rest of the world. China stays self-contained and then the Western world gets to grow.”

Would aluminium come to dominate Ma’aden’s expanding minerals and metals palette in future?

“If you look at the announced $2.5 trillion resource endowment in the Kingdom about 45% of it is phosphate,” Wilt said.

“We’ve got great phosphate reserves that will last 100 years, and that’s why we're expanding our phosphate business by another million-and-a-half tonnes.

“We will really build out the domestic phosphate business and that currently is about 65% of our EBITDA.

“As we think about what we’re going to do with Alba, that would be [under the group banner] a huge aluminium business [and] a huge phosphate business.

“We are currently the single largest exploration jurisdiction on the globe right now for one company to manage, so we've got partners scouring the Kingdom, working with us, deploying the best technologies to see what else we can unearth. The Kingdom’s got copper, it's got gold, it's got zinc. We know it’s there. We’ve just got to find it.

“We just had a board meeting a couple of weeks ago and I was explaining to the board that we’re trying to shave the cycle time from exploration and discovery to commissioning from 18 years down to nine. And my chairman said, that’s unacceptable.

“That shows the speed with which Saudi Arabia wants to go.

“We not only want to create the third pillar to the Saudi economy but be a global resources and minerals processing hub.

“We have what's called the Future Minerals Forum coming up on its fourth year in January [2025]. It had 16,000 people there last year. The emphasis the last two years has been on how we can make Africa to East Asia a super region.”

Wilt said the Kingdom’s primary fiscal pillar, oil, would continue to dictate its fortunes for the foreseeable future, including modulating spending at times in parts of its economy. But there had been no dampening of the energy and resourcing going into its Vision 2030 project slate.

“Twelve per cent of the world's construction is going on in Saudi Arabia; 20% of the world's cranes are in Saudi Arabia right now,” he said.

“So this is not just a metals and mining story, this is a total transformation of the economy and the society under Vision 2030.

“We are seeing sports, tourism, automotive, aerospace [and] technology investment. [Saudi Arabia] wants to be an AI processing hub.

“The PIF and the Kingdom [might be] scaling back on some of the giga projects [such as] Neom and The Line and accelerating others. So [it was] recently announced that we would get World Expo 2030. We’re the only contender for the World Cup in 2034.

“So some of the focus on construction and development has shifted away from The Line to getting ready for Expo and World Cup.

“But a slow-down in spending in mining? Not at all.”

Bob Wilt is a keynote speaker at the upcoming Resourcing Tomorrow 2024 conference in London.